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来源:中国产业信息 日期:2019-01-16 浏览:998 New energy vehicle industry: 19 years of subsidies or accelerated decline , still firmly optimistic about electrification trends Source: China Industry Information Date: 2019-01-16 Browse: 998

The accelerated subsidence of subsidies in 19 years may be a foregone conclusion. The subsidy adjustment is greater than expected, with several considerations: 1. Domestic sales are not worrying. 40% or 60% of the decline can not cover the cost of the battery, which has little effect on the margins of the car companies. The core of sales in 19 years lies in the implementation of double points. 2. The price of battery cells bears the brunt, but there is not much room for decline and there is a shortage of high-quality capacity. At the same time, the withdrawal of subsidies for 20 years has already been determined. Accelerating the decline will bring short-term performance fluctuations, but it will accelerate the industry's clearing. 3. Trends are more important than performance. The core of the 19-year industrial chain lies in the start of the mass production cycle of overseas OEMs. The accelerated decline of domestic subsidies does not affect the bidding and prices of overseas OEMs, let alone the general trend. 4. Foreign battery penetration in advance. Cycling subsidies have fallen, and some auto companies may switch to foreign-funded batteries. It is a good thing that the supply chain ’s gross profit margin is increased in advance. 5. The technical standards remain unchanged, cost-oriented short-term suppression technology upgrades, and LFP cost advantages may be able to perform.

We are still optimistic about the 19-year new energy vehicle industry chain, and the global trend towards electrification. The OEM will turn to the electric vehicle platform, which will realize intelligence, networking and automation on the electric platform. The industry is initially driven by policies, and the industry will be driven by the market in the medium and long term. Subsidy withdrawal is inevitable. Accelerated withdrawal is actually conducive to the normal development of the industry. Short-term profit pains will accelerate industry clearing, and the trend is greater than performance. Leading companies in subdivided fields will obtain a better structure in the process of clearance, and at the same time, the acceleration of overseas supply will ease the performance pressure brought by the decline in domestic subsidies.

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Baohe Industrial Tools (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
Booher Industrial Tools (Shanghai) Co., Limited
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